Originally published June 6, 2007
It looks like rough weather ahead this year for most of the country, if recent predictions hold. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, became the bearer of bad news when it released its predictions of persistent drought in the west, above-average rains in the southeast and 7-10 named hurricanes for the 2007 season, with 3-5 becoming major storms. With such grim outlooks, it’s best to prepare now in case the worst comes later. This edition of eBulletin will tell you what’s expected, what you can do to prepare and what you should do if the worst happens.
Additional Resources
NOAA Seasonal Outlooks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ [1]
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/ [2]
Blowing hot or cold
Last year’s hurricane predictions were less than the previous year, when Katrina, Rita and other storms devastated the Gulf Coast. The season faltered thanks to a late-occurring El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. An El Niño (Spanish for “the boy”) is a warming of the waters in the Pacific, which affects weather patterns worldwide. In this case, the change in the winds from El Niño kept hurricanes from forming well in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
That’s not going to be the case this year, according to the National Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The Pacific has remained cool, which means the Atlantic is ripe for tropical storm formation. It also means the West will be drier than last year, because cooler waters don’t produce as many moisture-rich storm fronts to hit the West Coast.
The lack of an El Niño means conditions are ripe for tropical storms, and NOAA’s forecast calls for 13-17 named tropical storms. They’re named once the move from tropical depression to tropical storm status, meaning winds hit the 39 mph mark. They become hurricanes once winds hit 74 mph. If you’re wondering what names to expect from this year’s storms, you can check out the list at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml [3].
Predictors say the number could hit the higher end if a La Niña forms in the Pacific in the next month or so. A La Niña (Spanish for “the girl”) is when the Pacific waters cool more than normal, causing weather patterns that encourage tropical storm development.
What does this mean for small water systems? It could mean nothing, if the storms fail to develop or take a different path. But if a storm hits, make sure you have ways to protect vital equipment and have a plan in place for what to do after the storm. There are several factors to consider when drawing up such plans. What if pumps are damaged? What if a water source is contaminated, flooded or even drained? What if the town’s water tower is knocked down?
Luckily, there are several resources available online that provide tips and checklists to help water and wastewater systems prepare for such disasters.
FEMA recently launched a Web site to provide references for those who want to prepare for hurricanes and those who want to know what to do if hit by the storms. The EPA also has Web sites with before and after information, including pages aimed specifically at water and wastewater facilities of all sizes. Links to both are provided below.
Pre-hurricane suggestions include:
- Ensuring you have an updated contact list of employees and emergency personnel
- Pre-arranging purchases of replacement equipment and needed chemicals so they will arrive as quickly as possible
- Preparing customer notifications, such as boil orders, and determining the best way to distribute them
- Determining the best way to get employees to work or to sites needing repair.
The EPA also recommends inspecting systems for areas that could be damaged more easily, ensuring that a backup generator is available and functioning; making sure there are enough chemicals and that they’re stored in a high, safe place; filling storage tanks to help minimize wind damage and maintain pressure throughout the system and removing fuel from underground tanks to prevent contamination.
Post-hurricane suggestions include:
- Maintaining contact with state and federal agencies
- Consulting with public health officials for public notifications
- Making arrangements to restore power as a primary customer
- Sandbagging critical areas to prevent flood damage
- Keeping sensitive equipment, computer and vital records in a safe, high area in case of flooding.
Be sure you know exactly what equipment you’ll need, recommends Mark Pearson, Development Management Specialist for Community Resource Group, the Southern partner for the Rural Community Assistance Partnership. For example, what type and power generator will you need to get your pump system working again?
“This was a [Hurricane] Rita issue in Texas,” Pearson said.
An electrician can recommend ahead of time exactly what to get, he said.
Additional Resources
EPA Hurricane Preparation and Recovery Tips
http://www.epa.gov/hurricanes/ [4]
EPA Pre-Hurricane Tips for Water/Wastewater Facilities
http://www.epa.gov/safewater/hurricane/pre-hurricane.html [5]
EPA Post-Hurricane and Flooding Tips for Water/Wastewater Facilities
http://www.epa.gov/safewater/hurricane/post-hurricane.html [6]
All Dried Up
While hurricanes can cause a lot of damage in a short amount of time, droughts can be just as damaging and expensive.
The latest drought predictions show persistent drought continuing (and even intensifying) in the Southwest. Given much of the area is a desert, that doesn’t seem too surprising, but many of these areas do get several inches of rain each year, normally. The dry conditions this year also are expected to hit commonly wetter areas, such as the mid- to upper-Rockies. In fact, states such as Washington and Idaho are likely to develop drought in several areas this year, NOAA predicts. It also shows drought persisting or intensifying through Colorado and the Dakotas.
Other areas are expected to see an improvement in their drought conditions, mainly in northern Michigan and Minnesota and the southeast states, from the western parts of the Carolinas through Florida and west to Mississippi.
Widespread drought hit the Plains in the spring and summer of 2006, affecting states from North Dakota to Texas as well as states in the South and West. Damages were estimated at more than $6 billion, and several heat-related deaths were reported. A National Climate Data Center report stated that water sources like the South Platte River nearly dried up, municipalities imposed water use restrictions and crops died before harvest. “In many areas, such as in South Dakota and Nebraska, recovery of grazing lands from drought is not expected for at least two years,” the report states. (The report is available by clicking the “Special Report” link under the 2006 entry for Widespread Drought at http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/reports/billionz.html [7].)
Drought can be one of the worst things for a water system to face, mainly because of the length of time involved. Not only must a system deal with the shortage as the drought is developing and in progress, but it also must wait for water supplies to be fully replenished once the drought is over, and it must deal with the contaminants that come from water flowing over dry ground, picking up more material as it goes. Full replenishment from a severe drought can take years.
One good tip is to keep the customers informed of the water supply situation. Some customers might think a couple of good rains can replenish the water supply, so they don’t need to conserve anymore. It may be necessary to send out reminders of ongoing conservation orders and to explain why those orders are still in place, despite the drought easing or ending.
The best plan is to plan ahead. That idea helped the town of Marshall, Ark., during a drought that stretched from 2005 to 2006.
“That was the driest we’ve been in years and years and years,” said James Busbee, Marshall’s mayor. The town serves 890 water customers, as well as 300 others from the surrounding area, including the town of Leslie.
Busbee said Marshall already had a drought contingency plan that it had submitted to the Arkansas Department of Health should Hughes Spring, the town’s water source, dry up.
“We simply went into Brush Creek,” he said.
The alternative water source, along with a new well the town drilled, helped keep Marshall’s residents supplied through the drought.
Busbee said planning ahead is the best thing a town can do to prepare for drought.
“I’d be looking for some other source of water to supplement what you have” before the need for one arises, he recommended.
For those that don’t have drought plans set in stone, the National Drought Mitigation Center provides plenty of resources, including a long list of links to state drought plans. They also provide links to a few drought plans from local governments at http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/droughtplan.htm [8]. The plans vary in detail, but they make a good starting point for communities interested in creating their own plans.
Additional Resources
NOAA Drought Assessment
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml [9]
National Drought Mitigation Center Drought Links
http://www.drought.unl.edu/links.htm [10]
NDMC State Drought Plans
http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/stateplans.htm [11]
Here Comes the Rain Again
Those who think a hurricane only affects the coasts have never had 8 inches of rain in an hour from its remnants.
In 2005, after Katrina devastated Louisiana, it moved up the Mississippi River Valley, dumping huge amounts of rain all the way into Canada. The remains of the hurricane caused severe flooding in landlocked states such as Kentucky, Tennessee and Ohio. Damage from floods, storms and even tornados was reported in New York, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia, as well as Ontario and Quebec in Canada.
NOAA is predicting improved drought conditions in the southeast with above-average rainfall expected over the next few months. That’s fine, so long as it comes little by little. But getting heavy rain systems one right after another could lead to flooding.
That’s what happened to the upper Midwest in 1993. One storm system after another, in some areas combined with melting snow from heavy snowfalls that winter, caused severe flooding in several states from Minnesota to Missouri and Indiana to Nebraska, leading to more than $26.7 billion in damages, including to inundated water and wastewater systems. More recently, Texas experienced major flooding in 1998 after two heavy rain systems dumped 10-20 inches of rainfall in the southeast part of the state. These are just two of 70 weather-related disasters from 1980-2006 in the U.S., according to the NCDC study.
One of the biggest threats to rural water systems by flooding is contamination of the system’s potable water by flood waters seeping into the system or overtaking water sources. Flooding can also shut down power and disable pump systems.
It’s a good idea to keep an eye on lake and river levels, to monitor whether incoming storm systems could raise waters above flood stage. Such levels often are published daily in local newspapers. They’re also available online at NOAA’s Web site, http://www.noaa.gov [12].
Additional Resources
NOAA Precipitation Tables
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/us_prec.shtml [13]
NOAA Flooding information site
http://www.noaa.gov/floods.html [14]
Be Prepared
Natural disasters can’t be prevented, but the right preparations can alleviate the damage they cause.
It’s a good idea to have disaster plans in place, and employees, city officials and emergency personnel should be briefed on such plans on a regular basis, be it annually, semi-annually, seasonally or monthly. Plans should include steps to take to prepare for such disasters to protect systems, equipment and employees, up-to-date lists of who to contact before and after the disaster occurs, ways to get power and services restored as quickly as possible and ways to communicate with customers.
Ready.gov provides a long list of resources on its Web site for businesses large and small who want to prepare for natural disasters. It also provides tips and checklists detailing what to do before, during and after a disaster, not only to protect the business or industry, but its employees as well.
Several other Web sites offer hints, tips and strategies for preparing for and recovering from disasters. Physician Patricia L. Meinhardt prepared a PowerPoint presentation titled “Disaster Preparedness for Water Contamination Events: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Katrina.” The presentation can be viewed online as a PDF file with Acrobat Reader, which is free at http://www.adobe.com [15].
Meinhardt outlines some of the devastation that can occur when drinking water is contaminated by a natural disaster, water terrorism or man-made accident. She points out cases where hundreds, even thousands, have been sickened by such events, including a 1993 Cryptosporidiosis outbreak in Milwaukee, Wis., that sickened more than 400,000 – more than half the population.
Meinhardt offers ideas on what water and wastewater facilities can do to keep such disasters from happening, including working with medical personnel.
Additional Resources
OSHA Emergency Preparedness and Response (Small Businesses)
http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/smallbusiness/sec10.html [16]
FEMA Emergency Management Guide for Business & Industry
http://www.fema.gov/business/guide/index.shtm [17]
Ready.gov’s Ready Business
http://www.ready.gov/business/index.html [18]
“Disaster Preparedness for Water Contamination Events” PDF version
http://www.ualbanycphp.org/SiteCoordinators/02_09_06/Media/Handouts.pdf [19]